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Another BBC Spoof Article

Discussion in 'Humour' started by Duncan, Apr 21, 2014.

  1.  
    Duncan

    Duncan Moderator Staff Member Premium Member

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    leemason

    leemason Senior Lab Tech

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    Correlation and not causation!

    It's like zero tolerance policing. No evidence at all.

    But let's not let that stop anyone!
     
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    cjd

    cjd Junior Lab Tech

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    I think it's the opposite - lots of people have lots of ideas why crime is falling - or appears to be falling. The truth is it's complicated; it's likely to be a combination of a lot of different factors, but one of the least likely causes of the rise is lead in petrol because criminologist think that they can mostly explain it by changes in how society was organised.
     
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    Duncan

    Duncan Moderator Staff Member Premium Member

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    I agree - lots of people have lots of ideas and opinions. As you say it's likely to be a combination of many factors, but people crave congruent and often simple stories to explain the world around them.
     
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    ISS

    ISS Son of Victor Meldrew Premium Member

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    Crime is falling? No no no no. People are not bothering to report as many crimes now. Also wasn't the way the way that crimes are dealt with for the purposes of national statistics changed?
     
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    Employment Law Clinic

    Employment Law Clinic Graduate

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    I got mugged a couple of years ago, only a hundred yards from home, on my road.

    A few months later, I checked the police.gov\whatever site to see the reports, and lo & behold, no record. Apart from being met by a patrol car a few minutes after the event, I was never contacted again.

    The muppets got nothing: I denied having a phone on me (the one I used to call the police within a minute of the attack being over); they were all (about five or six of them) too focused on laying kicks & punches in me to actually acknowledge the fact I hadn't denied having cash on me - I had said I didn't have much, and I was only going to the local shop! (£15 if I recall, for a few beers and some cat food.) I still came away with cuts & bruises (sufficient to visit A&E the following day), but I only saw the one :cop:. It wasn't recorded, and they clearly got whatever malevolent pleasure they get out of these things.


    Clearly that event didn't really happen, as I was delusional from breathing unleaded fuel, and crime levels are falling. Or there's still something in petrol that offers a tripping experience Dominic Casciani has recently experienced.



    Karl Limpert
     
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    cjd

    cjd Junior Lab Tech

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    ISS

    ISS Son of Victor Meldrew Premium Member

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    This is the same report that declares that more people thought that the CJS was fair in 2011 than previously. Yep I'm definitely believing this as fact...

    It's a masterpiece of statistically adjusted crap. You're no fool Colin, you can make statistics say anything you like if you adjust the parameters to suit the result you want to show. :>-D:
     
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    Duncan

    Duncan Moderator Staff Member Premium Member

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    cjd

    cjd Junior Lab Tech

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    Is there a reason you think your personal, anecdotal view of the world is to be preferred over any scientific or organised statistical analysis? On any subject at all? Is it a global conspiracy aimed at you in particular?
     
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    ISS

    ISS Son of Victor Meldrew Premium Member

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    Yes. Because it makes at least as much sense than "statistics" dreamt up and manipulated by people with a financial or political agenda.
     
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    cjd

    cjd Junior Lab Tech

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    You think that someone - who and why?? - is bribing the world's research agencies to produce fraudulent data on crime? It's an odd world you inhabit.
     
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    ISS

    ISS Son of Victor Meldrew Premium Member

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    It's less odd than believing every survey that's put in front of you "because someone with qualifications wrote it."

    You're really this gullible aren't you.
     
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    Mark

    Mark Moderator Staff Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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    cjd

    cjd Junior Lab Tech

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    When did ignorance become a valid point of view? The British Crime Survey is not just "any survey", it's a highly respected analysis by a highly respected, independent company and its results are mirrored around the Western world.

    You think that it's credible that there's a global conspiracy to make people believe that crime is falling when it's not?

    And your evidence for that is what exactly, the guy in the pub and your personal anecdote?

    I'm not particularly gullible; when someone says this "Crime is falling? No no no no" I tend to go away and do some research and find the facts.
     
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    ISS

    ISS Son of Victor Meldrew Premium Member

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    cjd

    cjd Junior Lab Tech

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    Ffs. Cherry picking google results for newspaper articles that meet your 'crime is rising' search is just silly.

    The fall in crime is a well researched, 20 year, global phenomenon that has multiple causes. If I thought you were really interested and capable of thinking in a straight line for long enough, I'd try to explain it to you.
     
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    ISS

    ISS Son of Victor Meldrew Premium Member

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    Oh we've graduated from everyone else being wrong to getting personal and demeaning have we?

    Do carry on being a sanctimonious poseur.
     
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    cjd

    cjd Junior Lab Tech

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    Ok deep breaths.

    I'm not going to touch your global conspiracy theory about how you know better than every crimonologist on the globe about crime statistics - that's a level of hubris and delusion I just can't deal with. All I can suggest is that you stop googling to find local results that you want to be true and start googling some reliable academic sources about crime levels by country and form a conclusion on the actual evidence. (Also google confirmation bias whilst you're about it.)

    My own view for what it's worth, is that the rise in crime - that started after the second world war - was caused by large changes in society that coincided with consumerism. There was more stuff to steal and not a lot to stop you. You could break into a car with a coathanger and burgle a house because there was no-one home because both spouses were working. Kids were experimenting with drugs and alcohol and there was a lot of machismo around because of the war and a still large prevalence of a hard manufacturing economy. There was also a baby boom that created a young population.

    We now have an older population (most crime is comitted by under 24 year old men and boys) and a service culture which is less testosterone ridden. Stuff is harder to steal and less valuable. (The exception is mobile phone crime which is growing - for obvious reasons.)

    There's a lot of evidence that the rise in crime after the war was a blip and that for hundreds of years before crime was much lower so we are now simply reverting to the mean.

    The flaw in all of this is that almost all stats are excluding online crime and white collar fraud. I suspect that is we started looking closely at that we'd find that the type of crimes that we worry about, violent crimes like assault and rape and property crime like burglary and theft, have declined because criminals are finding it easier and safer to migrate to the internet.
     
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    Mark

    Mark Moderator Staff Member

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    Great, can we have our handguns back?
     

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